Trapped Between A Doc and a Hard Place

For the past few weeks, Phillies fans' heads have been ready to explode with determining whether or not Roy Halladay would be worth the sacrifice of JA Happ. Halladay made himself more expensive, going a complete game versus Boston yesterday and improving to 11-3. Happ is making it harder to give up as he went at least seven innings for the fifth consecutive time yesterday to improve to 7-0. Here is a list of options the Phillies have:

1) Over pay a boat load of good prospects for Halladay.
2) In the over paying, include Happ or Kyle Drabek.
2) Pass on the chance for a Cy Young pitcher to keep the prospects and settle with Pedro Martinez.

In this post, I will go into detail of all three scenarios and where it will leave the Phillies. In conclusion, I will chose the best option.

The Phillies traded Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Dominic Brown, and Jason Knapp for Roy Halladay: This is the dream scenario for the Phillies. They get to keep a hold of Happ and Drabek along with top OF prospect Michael Taylor and catcher Lou Marson. The Jays get two good pitching prospects (but not the Phillies' best), the short stop prospect they so eagerly wanted in Donald, and a great outfielder in Brown.

The Phillies get the former Cy Young winner and dominant Halladay for the fee of four cheap prospects. There is only one problem with this: it's not realistic and most likely won't happen. I would welcome this trade with an open heart but I already know not to get my hopes up as the Jays WANT Happ to be included in the deal.

Also the Phillies have been playing tremendous ball for the past two weeks and don't want to mess with the team's chemistry. With their current 6.5 game lead in the division, the Phillies might not need Halladay to help in a race that may not even be close. Also Halladay will need time to adjust playing the NL every start.

I will pass on this scenario.

The Phillies trade Happ/Drabek/both along with other prospects for Halladay: This already sounds like a terrible idea as it is the worst-case scenario. Drabek has some seriously nasty stuff in the minors. He is also only 21 and has the stock to be much better than Cole Hamels. He throws hard and has a filthy breaking ball. He was touted as the best pitcher in this year's Future Stars Game last week.

Happ is major league ready and proven. He's 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 6.2 K/9. In his last five starts, he's gone at least seven innings and has thrown two scoreless outings including one complete game. These two players alone are not worth giving up for Halladay.

I will pass on this scenario as well.

The deadline has past and the Phils do not make a move for Halladay: after the 2010 season (Halladay would be a FA), the Phillies will need to worry about signing Joe Blanton. They will also have to give a new contract to Happ and see Jamie Moyer possibly retire. Pedro Martinez will be gone after 2009 and Hamels will still be in for another year. If the Phillies don't have Happ, Carrasco, or Drabek to fall back on and also keep Blanton, you will be looking at a very depleted rotation. It is hard to find good pitching in the free agent market unless you're the Yankees.

Also in the field, Raul Ibanez is 37 and Jayson Werth is 30. Who knows how much longer they will be Phillies. In that case, holding onto Brown, Taylor, and John Mayberry Jr. seem to be smart decisions. Shane Victorino will also be available in the market but he is a player the Phillies will need to hold onto. Catcher can also be a concern so holding onto Marson will be important as well.

Not trading for Halladay is the way to go.

Jays Shopping Halladay

The thin market for pitchers just got thicker. Though I could see Halladay moving fall through, there will be a long line of teams with offers interested in former Cy Young pitcher. The Phillies will be one of those teams. I will show the Philly Inquirer article written by David Murphy with the details and then I will break down each part:

First, let's take a look at what a team would be getting on the field:
1. Halladay is 32 years old.
2. From 2006-2008 he averaged 17 wins, 7 losses, a 3.22 ERA, 6.2 strikeouts and 1.6 walks per nine innings.
3. This season, he is 10-2 with a 2.79 ERA. Opponents are hitting .250 off of him.
4. Halladay is 17-8 with a 3.02 ERA in 35 career interleague appearances.
5. Halladay was on the disabled list twice with shoulder problems in 2004, and missed the second half of 2005 after breaking his leg. But he has been mostly healthy since, although he did spend time on the DL in 2007 after an appendectomy.
6. The Phillies coaching staff likes Halladay a lot.

Second let's take a look at his contract:
1. Halladay is in the second year of a three-year, $40 million contract
2. He is scheduled to early $14.25 million this season, which means the Phillies would be adding roughly $7.125 million of payroll for the rest of this season.
3. Halladay is scheduled to earn $15.75 million in 2010, after which he will become a free agent.

Third, let's take a look at the Phillies' bargaining chips:
OF Dominic Brown: Rated by Baseball America as the organization's top prospect, he is currently on the disabled list with a broken finger, but that shouldn't limit his value. The 21-year-old left-handed hitting corner outfielder was hitting .299 with a .379 On Base Percentage with nine home runs, 38 RBI and 14 stolen bases at Class A Clearwater.

RHP Kyle Drabek: He has been tearing up Double-A Reading, and at just 21 years old may be on the verge of surpassing Carlos Carrasco as the organization's top pitching prospect.

LHP J.A. Happ: Happ recently recorded his first career complete game shutout against the Blue Jays and has been fantastic the last two seasons. Scouts don't think he has the upside of a Buchholz, but with five more years of club control and an impressive start to his career, he has value.

INF Jason Donald: He has battled injury and performance issues since his promotion to Triple-A, but he is still viewed as one of the Phillies' better prospects.

C Lou Marson: Like Donald, has had a so-so year at Triple-A. But, also like Donald, he is the closest thing the organization has to a major-league-ready bat, and he plays a premium position.

OF Michael Taylor: You know all about him already. If you don't, check out his stats at Double-A Reading.

RHP Carlos Carrasco: Kind of in the Gavin Floyd mold. Great stuff, but he still does not have the major league makeup. Then again, he is only 22 years old.

OF John Mayberry: Has drifted back and forth between the Phils and Lehigh Valley. Big-time power, but won't be an everyday player in Philly for at least another year-and-a-half.

So here are some packages I'll throw out there. You tell me which ones wouldn't make sense for the Phillies:
1. Dominic Brown, J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, John Mayberry Jr.
2. Drabek, Jason Donald or Lou Marson, Andrew Carpenter, Player TBA
3. Drabek, J.A. Happ, John Mayberry Jr., Player TBA
4. Drabek, Michael Taylor, J.A. Happ, Player TBA
5. Dominic Brown, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Kyle Kendrick

First Murphy broke down Halladay. Halladay is 32 but that doesn't seem to be a factor at all. He will instantly become the ace on this team, making Cole Hamels the #2 which I think Hamels or anyone else on Philly's side will have no problem with. His 10-2 record and 2.79 ERA will instantly be leading the Phillies. His numbers the last 3 years are also incredible. His numbers versus the NL (17-8; 3.02) show that he should have no problems switching to the National League. Halladay and the Phillies will be a match made in heaven.

Now looking at his contract, money should not be an issue here. The Phillies have the ability to pay the remaining $7.125 million for this season and $15.75 million for next season. He will be a FA after the 2010 season and if he and Philly see another ring during the next two seasons, I could see a contract keeping him here for more years to come.

Now to the players Murphy feels the Phillies should use in the trade. Based off Toronto's needs, Lou Marson could be a target. And I can't see any team not wanting the talented outfielder Dominic Brown. As far as pitching, the only player I do not want to part with is JA Happ. He is pitching well and will continue to pitch well. Though sacrificing him will instantly make the top of the rotation better, their back end will be tremendously weak. I have no problem with coughing up either Carlos Carrasco or Kyle Drabek as long as it isn't both. Throwing Andrew Carpenter's name in the mix is also not a bad idea.

Murphy throws in some good ideas for packages and the one I agree with the most is the second. The first thing that attracted me to that idea was that there is no trading of Happ. I thought the fifth was more of a dream option as it is the weakest proposed. Back to his second option, Jason Donald or Marson are going to be the offensive kickers in that deal. Both have great potential offensively. Now the deal breaking piece will be Drabek or Brown. I liked him choosing Drabek because it will allow Philly to hold onto Carrasco, who has already shown good potential. Drabek is their top pitching prospect and therefor will help counter the loss of Halladay for Toronto.

He also threw in Andrew Carpenter which was not a bad move as an insurance piece. Now he added a player TBA and I would make that John Mayberry. Mayberry strikes out too much but shows great offensive and defensive skill. Brown is probably going to be the better all-around player than Mayberry and Mayberry's major league experience could be a plus for Toronto.

There are a lot of options out there in going for Halladay. As long as he keeps his Cy Young form and the Phillies don't give up too much, I will have no problem in bringing him here.

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